One of the last big awards in the lead up to the Oscars, and the biggest night in the British Cinema Calendar. It can sometimes be tricky to predict the winners here; sometimes the BAFTAs like to go in a different direction to other awards, and can tend to favour the Brits. They can be important in predicting the Oscars, but aren’t afraid to go for who they really want. Here, I’ll try and predict as well as give my opinion on who I’d like to win…
Will win: La La Land
Should win (in my opinion): La La Land
The long shot: I, Daniel Blake
La La Land looks set to continue its Best Film sweep, where I, Daniel Blake seems unlikely as it hasn’t really been recognised much elsewhere.
Outstanding British Film
Will win: I, Daniel Blake
Should win: I, Daniel Blake
Often hard to predict due to the category being pretty specific to BAFTA, but Ken Loach is no stranger to the award, and his film is the most recognised of this year’s nominations.
Will win: Damien Chazelle ~ La La Land
Should win: Damien Chazelle ~ La La Land
Possible upset: Kenneth Lonergan ~ Manchester by the Sea
The long shot: Tom Ford ~ Nocturnal Animals
Chazelle seems to be on an unstoppable, and well-deserved, streak, so any possible upset isn’t even remotely a threat at this point. Unfortunately, due to Nocturnal Animals being sadly shut out in most other places, Tom Ford would appear to be a long shot anyway, even if this wasn’t a lock.
Best Actress in a Leading Role
Will win: Emma Stone ~ La La Land
Should win: Emma Stone ~ La La Land (or Amy Adams ~ Arrival)
Possible upset: Natalie Portman ~ Jackie
The long shot: Emily Blunt ~ The Girl on the Train
Stone seems to have this category all wrapped up, with the threat from Portman becoming ever-diminishing over the course of the awards circuit.
Best Actor in a Leading Role
Will win: Casey Affleck ~ Manchester by the Sea
Should win: Casey Affleck ~ Manchester by the Sea
Possible upset: Ryan Gosling ~ La La Land
The long shot: Jake Gyllenhaal ~ Nocturnal Animals
Affleck seems to be a lock amongst this group of nominees, with his only real threat so far coming from Denzel Washington, not present here. Unfortunately, Gyllenhaal is a long shot here, having not been recognised much elsewhere.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Will win: Would expect Mahershala Ali ~ Moonlight, but feel BAFTA may go another way
Should win: Mahershala Ali ~ Moonlight (Not released here yet but, it appears so)
The long shot: Hugh Grant ~ Florence Foster Jenkins
Based on the result of most other awards shows it may be expected for Ali to win, but this is a category I feel BAFTA may award to one of the British nominees – Patel or Taylor-Johnson – however, unlikely Grant as although he claimed (a perhaps surprising win) back in 1995, he’s mostly been shut-out elsewhere.
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Will win: Viola Davis ~ Fences
Should win: Viola Davis ~ Fences (Again, not released here yet, but come on it’s Viola Davis)
Possible upset: Naomie Harris ~ Moonlight
The long shot: Hayley Squires ~ I, Daniel Blake
Viola Davis seems to have this category on lock, the other nominees barely register as a threat at this point. Unfortunately, due to not being recognised elsewhere, despite her brilliant performance, Squires would seem the least likely to claim the prize.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Will win: Eric Heisserer ~ Arrival
Should win: Eric Heisserer ~ Arrival…or…Tom Ford ~ Nocturnal Animals
Possible upset: Luke Davies ~ Lion
The long shot: Andrew Knight, Robert Schenkkan ~ Hacksaw Ridge
It’s hard to predict the writing categories seeing as the WGA awards have not happened yet, so these are real guesses. The only real prediction you can make is Hacksaw Ridge as a long shot due to its lack of writing recognition at the Oscars.
Best Original Screenplay
Will win: Kenneth Lonergan ~ Manchester by the Sea
Should win: Kenneth Lonergan ~ Manchester by the Sea
Possible upset: Damien Chapelle ~ La La Land
The long shot: Taylor Sheridan ~ Hell or High Water
Again, hard to predict, but it seems like Manchester by the Sea will lead the way. The La La Land love could overpower it, but it seems unlikely at this point. Sheridan’s screenplay was fantastic but hasn’t quite gained the traction or publicity the others have.
Will win: Linus Sandgren ~ La La Land
Should win: Linus Sandgren ~ La La Land…or…Seamus McGarvey ~ Nocturnal Animals
Possible upset: Bradford Young ~ Arrival
The long shot: Greig Fraser ~ Lion
La La Land‘s gorgeous visuals seem to have this on lock, but this is a strong category this year. Lion would arguably lag behind a little as a long shot, purely because, although beautiful, it wasn’t quite as visually striking.
It appears that the animated category may go to Zootopia based on its political message, but artistically, Kubo and the Two Strings may win over. Rising Star (the only award voted for by the public) is also most likely to go to the very deserving Tom Holland as one of the most well-known of the nominees.
La La Land obviously has the music category wrapped up, and may have a chance at the costume as well, although it is strongly challenged by Jackie. La La Land is also pretty strong in the production design category, but could be edged out by veteran Stuart Craig for Fantastic Beasts.
Sound will hopefully go to Arrival, and editing looks to be between La La Land and Hacksaw Ridge, although I’d like to think Nocturnal Animals is in the mix too (although this is less likely as the film as a whole has received less love).
It’s a great mix of nominations that looks to present a few surprises on Sunday, and may stray a little from the trends that have appeared of the course of awards season.